A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
